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One major side effect of the ongoing DNC civil war (specifically, the party's Presidential primary process) is that, as of right now, Vegas odds favor what's called a "brokered convention".
What that means is that Vegas odds also currently say neither Bernie nor Biden is likely to get the delegate totals necessary to clinch the nomination, throwing it open to the actual convention itself to decide who the nominee will be. That would be a free-wheeling, horse-trading, chaotic mess, on top of which the Dems already changed the rules regarding how superdelegates will be handled this time around.
And did you know there's still a woman - a woman of color, at that - in the race?
Tulsi Gabbard, despite getting only TWO delegates so far, has refused to go the way of Elizabeth Warren, Amy Klobuchar, and Kamala Harris. MSNBC, in interviewing post-dropout Warren, couldn't be bothered to remember this fact, but then Warren couldn't either.
Two of the oldest possible white men in American politics are going full-on at each other right now, one with the establishment behind him and one with the "progressive" wing's rank-and-file. While it might be easy to say Biden's recent upward spikes are putting the nails in Bernie's political coffin, these spikes seem to mirror what most of the party actually WANTS to do: unify behind somebody, anybody, so they can get on with the job of trying to defeat Trump instead of each other. Biden's big win in South Carolina - which I called elsewhere online; it's why he bailed from New Hampshire and flew directly to SC, in order to get it hammered down - was where he suddenly began spiking, just before going into Super Tuesday.
Well, Bernie hasn't dropped out and his base is now rallying. Expect the Biden Spike to be blunted and for them to be neck-and-neck going into the convention proper.
Both sides hate her because:
1) She's pro-military, a veteran, and closer to being a moderate than anything else - Berniebros hate her.
2) Hillary Clinton smeared her as a "Russian asset", which was the establishment's cue to stuff her into a box.
But she's also still the only female, and the only person of color, still in the race. She's also anti-establishment. Either Bernie or Biden could make a show of "rapproachment" by brokering a combined ticket with her, and the fact that she has next to no delegates would also lend an air of commitment towards party unification. Gabbard's also one hell of a rhetorical fighter with a good stage presence.
Because so much of the party "just wants this over with", an argument for unification with at least some bite to it might cause enough defections from the opposing ticket to tip the scales in a necessarily-decisive fashion. The DNC won't have any real chance against Trump if it remains closely divided after the convention... "grit your teeth and pull the lever" is a lot easier for people who don't feel like a dagger is already lodged in their voting hand.
Or we could just watch two old men yell at each other some more until everyone gets fed up and votes - or doesn't.
Joined 13 November 2014