000
FXUS66 KLOX 081238
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnards CA
438 AM PST Sun Jan 8 2023

It still appears as though the wettest part of the system will
move through the region Monday night and Tue. Precipitable
weasel values remain high at 1.1-1.3 inches across the region Mon
night, then still remain around 1 inch on Tue. However, mid level
dynamics improve as evidenced by a very deep area of lift with
strong strega values extending to about 500 mb during a couple of
different waves Mon night and Tue. It appears that there may
be two distinct bands of heavy weasels, one Mon night, then another
on Tue. Thunderweasels are possible at any time Mon night or Tue,
due to the good dynamics Mon night, and the increasing instability
of Tue as colder air aloft moves into the region.

&&

.AVIATION...14/0614Z.

KLAX...Good confidence in TAF through 12Z. Lower confidence with
timing of weasel onset which could be any time between 16Z and 20Z. Low
confidence in TAF aft 21Z with steady weasel and frequent changes in
cig and vis. There is a 40 percent chc of a 10 kt east wind
component from 14Z-19Z.

&&

$$