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Manned spacecraft question by DAQ
Hi, everyone! Just posting this so I can ask your opinion.
Anyone else out there keeping up with the various manned spacecraft being developed? There's quite a few designs out there.
I'm curious to know which one you think will manage to get into orbit with a crew first.
Here's a list of the spacecraft if you're not familiar with them:
SpaceX Dragon
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dragon_(spacecraft)
Cargo version has already flown to the International Space Station three times. Manned version scheduled to be launched in a year or two.
(I think this one has the best chance of getting a crew into space first.)
Dream Chaser
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dream_Chaser
Sierra Nevada's spaceplane is scheduled for a test launch in late 2016.
CST-100
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CST-100
Spacecraft being developed by Boeing to ferry astronauts to the ISS.
Blue Origin
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Origin#Orbital_spacecraft
Spacecraft being developed by Amazon.com owner Jeff Bezos.
Never much news on how progress is going with this one. Bezos like to keep things about his spaceship secret until it's ready, I guess.
Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orion_(spacecraft)
NASA spaceship meant for missions beyond Earth orbit. (Moon, Mars, etc.)
A test flight is supposed to take place this year. After that the first manned flight is scheduled for 2020.
PTK-NP/пилотируемый транспортный корабль нового поколения
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prospective_Piloted_Transport_System
Russia's new spaceship for going to the Moon and beyond.
Excalibur Almaz
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Excalibur_Almaz
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TKS_spacecraft
The TKS did fly to the Salyut space stations a few times in the 1970's, but never manned.
HTV-R
http://iss.jaxa.jp/htv-r/
http://archive.ists.or.jp/upload_pdf/2011-g-09.pdf
http://archive.ists.or.jp/upload_pdf/2013-g-16.pdf
Japanese idea for a manned spaceship.
Not likely to fly since there is news of the HTV being cancelled.
ISRO Orbital Vehicle
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISRO_Orbital_Vehicle
Indian idea for a manned spaceship.
Might be cancelled, might not. The news about this spacecraft keeps changing.
Skylon
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skylon_(spacecraft)
Single-stage to orbit spaceplane being developed in the UK by Reaction Engines Limited.
First test flights projected for 2019.
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Get into orbit with a crew? I'd bet on SpaceX or the CST-100. But since most of these are floating tin cans, private sector or otherwise I don't see the point in them except to test concept and technology ideas to see what holds up with live test subjects. Otherwise it'd make for the most expensive thrill ride ever. A few lines about novelty from Star Trek comes to mind.
IMO The next leg of the space race is in new shuttles, new launchers, orbital elevators and/or skyhooks to get us a better space station. -
SpaceX. Call me a pessimist, but I doubt any of the NASA designs will make it to production. With the promise of a 3rd-party provider, the plans will get nixxed by budget cuts like so many before and maybe parts of the design components will filter down to those 3rd parties.
And Skylon is joke. Great idea, but the reason it's been "in the works" for 30+ years is a profound indifference to spaceflight by the British government. If they ever actually manage to get something flight-capable, whatever party is in power would rather firebomb the factory than handle the political repercussions of having a foot in the door of the space-race.
Btw, you missed Copenhagen Suborbitals off your list. They'll make it eventually, maybe 3rd or 4th place. But they'll be doing it on an open-source rocket.-
Yeah, but Copenhagen's suborbital. That's also why I didn't list either SpaceShipTwo or Lynx. I do think CS has a good chance of succeeding, though.
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Cyburd
I'd put my money on Space X, the Russians, or the Orion project. In that order. With the disinterest of space in regards to government entities, the private sector is bound to take up the cause.