This is a mid-year review of how the sites Furbitron monitors are projected to fare for all of 2022, and how that compares to 2021.

tl;dr:

2022 may be the second year in a row where FurAffinity will not have year-on-year growth. 2022 will probably be the best year ever for e621.

FurAffinity submission ID 50,000,000 will probably happen around November 26, 2022 - possibly a little earlier.

tl;dr, but as a table:

Site          Estimate  vs 2021  Notes
Buzzly          222,000 +257%    based on submission rate since 2022-03-19
FurAffinity   5,200,000   -2.9%
Furiffic         17,600   -9.7%  if Furiffic had stayed online all year
FurryNetwork     39,300   -3.4%
SoFurry         136,000   +1.4%
Weasyl          104,000   -4.7%
e621            646,000  +18%

(submission estimates are rounded)

Buzzly

Buzzly is projected to have about 222,000 submissions in 2022, based on the post rate since March 19, 2022. Buzzly had about 62,200 posts in 2021; the 2022 estimate would be 257% higher than the 2021 count.

Buzzly launched in late 2021, and experienced fast growth through early 2022. Furbitron added tracking of Buzzly in early February 2022.

Around February and March 2022, there were some communications from Buzzly staff, and changes in their acceptable upload policy, that did not find favor with many of their users.

As a result, the post rate at Buzzly dropped off a lot in mid-March 2022. March 16, 2022 was the last day where Buzzly got more than 1,000 new posts a day - before that point, it averaged about 2,510 posts a day. Starting on March 21, 2022, Buzzly has never had more than 200 new posts a day - the average since then is about 93 posts a day.

If the post rate at Buzzly had remained at the level of January 1 to March 18, 2022, Buzzly would have had about 1,020,000 submissions in 2022, or about 1,550% higher than the 2021 count.

FurAffinity

FurAffinity is projected to have about 5,200,000 submissions in 2022. This would be 2.9% lower than the 5,358,000 submissions in 2021, and would mark the second year ever where FA would not have year-on-year growth.

Going strictly by the numbers, FurAffinity will probably reach submission ID 50,000,000 around November 26 or 27, 2022.

In reality, it will probably happen a few days sooner than that - as the submission IDs increase, more people will post submissions, hoping to have the 50,000,000th submission. Also, the projected date is on the Thanksgiving holiday long weekend in the United States, which may allow artists to have more time to post new submissions.

Furiffic

Furiffic announced in March 2022 that they would shut down on June 1, 2022, and they did. This estimate is based on linear extrapolation to 2022-12-31, based on data from 2022-01-01 to 2022-06-01.

Furiffic is projected to have had about 17,600 submissions in 2022, if it had stayed online all year. This would have been 9.7% lower than the 19,500 submission IDs in 2021.

FurryNetwork

FurryNetwork is projected to have about 39,300 submission IDs in 2022. This would be 3.4% lower than the 40,700 submission IDs in 2021.

SoFurry

SoFurry is projected to have about 136,000 submission IDs in 2022. This would be 1.4% higher than the 134,100 submissions in 2021.

Weasyl

Weasyl is projected to have about 104,000 submission IDs in 2022. This would be 4.7% lower than the 109,100 submission IDs in 2021.

e621

e621 is projected to have about 646,000 submission IDs in 2022. This is 18% higher than the 546,000 submission IDs in 2021, and would continue e621's history of year-on-year submission ID growth since 2009.

Notes and disclaimers

These are linear extrapolations to 2022-12-31, based on data from 2022-01-01 to 2022-07-07, for all sites except Buzzly and Furiffic.

The differences for Buzzly and Furiffic are in the site-specific sections above.

The submission ID counts in this post have been rounded off. They should be accurate to within 1% or so.

The owners of the various sites can directly query their site's database, so they may publish slightly different numbers than are found here.

The numbers here come from Furbitron's monitoring of the sites listed. The historical data was mostly gathered from the sites in September 2021. e621 provides a dump of their site database, so the historical data for e621 came from that dump in September 2021. Since then, Furbitron has done "live" monitoring of each site, once a day.

Thanks!

Furbitron
https://furbitron.com/