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A Probabilistic Discussion of Rape by Irbis
Let's assume that 50% of rape accusations are lies. This is high, but let's go with it. Let us also assume that there is an 80% chance a rapist will rape again. Let us assume that .01% of people are rapists.
There is a .01% chance that someone has raped someone. There is a .008% that someone will rape someone if they have never been accused of it. (Whether they have or haven't before!)
Now, if person X is accused of rape by one person, then there is a 50% chance they are a rapist. There is also a 40% chance that they will rape someone (other than that person!).
Two accusations, the odds are 75% that they are a rapist, and 60% that they will rape someone.
Three accusations, 87.5% chance to be a rapist, and 70% chance that they will rape somone.
Four accusations, 93.75% that they have raped someone, 75% that they will.
Five accusations, 96.875% that they have raped someone (you now must reject the null hypothesis that they are not a rapist, so five accusations would be enough to prove beyond a reasonable doubt that someone is a rapist on purely rational grounds with no other evidence), there is also a 77.5% chance that they will rape again.
It's not butthurt, it's not drama. Yes, there are emotional scars in rape victims. No, they are not irrational. There are currently known to me 4 accusations against you know who. I would actually be willing to bet there will be another. With even one rape accusation against someone, putting them in a position of power is a real danger. 40% is a pretty high chance that you're empowering a rapist, don't you think?
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Comments
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AND we haven't even heard this girl speak up for herself since this drama outbreak.
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Why doesn't she speak up and settle the matter?
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She never wanted it public, it ended up public due to the hacking of FA.
Now, the people I have in mind as the four are people who have claimed he raped them (1 person)/was clearly moving to do so(another 3). I'm not going on mass consensus. There are four accusations.
Now, I readily admit that the above is not a full, careful, statistic analysis of the situation, or that it'd be useful in court (which punish individual instances, and thus do not consider that a suspect has done done at least one as important in asking if the suspect did a particular thing) of a given but it illustrates my point that this is more than just a little thing. It's more than just he-said she-said. The guy is not safe as an FA admin or in any position of power and respect.
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He's not admin; he's a developer. He is considered part of staff.
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Yeah, that'd be "any position of power and respect". It seems to me that there's an unneeded probability that he'd use such a position to rape someone.
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His position doesn't factor into it. He has no reason to do anything but to be him, and to carry on regardless of what people think. If he will be hated either way, then Fuck You All.
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Bel. Rapists and abusers often use their abilities and positions to further their ways. As I pointed out above, the probability that the position will be abused is non-zero and is likely higher than anyone'd be comfortable with if it were presented as a raw probability.
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Sure. He totally has a sinister agenda. The justice system is NOT left up to mob rule, and we have due process. He is innocent until proven guilty in a court of law.
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Yes. Before the law.
When it comes to having access to secure information and being graced with the respect that coding a much-needed FA revamp deserves? No, the probability is too high. To argue otherwise is to ignore the probabilities. 4 accusations make it pretty damn likely he's a rapist. He may never spend a day in jail, few rapists do. However, that doesn't mean it's a good idea to put him in a position of power and respect.
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Also, Zaush published a journal to address business that fucking furries shouldn't have stuck their noses in. If there was any sort of purgatory or repentant hell, it would be what furries have already put him through for somethiong he hasn't been convicted of.
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He addressed 1 of the four women who accuse him of rape. And that one he addressed poorly, at best.
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So if she didn't want it public, then all the furries crying over this are really disrespecting her.
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What I've been thinking is why doesn't this accused guy get it settled legally IF he wants to clear his own name and stay on that develoment team. I'd say if it turns out he did then he'd be dealt with, if she lied then she'd be dealt with. Considering it's such a large website now it would be more sensible for 'Neer and you know who to sought out legal proof.
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I'm no lawyer, but I don't think you can request a prosecution against yourself.
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No I mean it would only be fair to have a trial against the girl if it's just him sticking his dick in "crazy" and if he's got nothing to hide. Why doesn't he prove it? You can take someone to court over things like this, although I never really think she wanted it public.
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I suppose some kind of civil case. No lawyer myself though.
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No but you see this is just petty furry drama and I'm a Savvy IntraNet User so I just don't care HEY GUYS I DON'T CARE YOU SHOULD ALL KNOW I DON'T CARE RHIUHIUhfuihvuikhbiukfhbiouhgghekghguighkjh
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Just to clarify, that was me raging incoherently against the people that think it's 'cool' to just dismiss this whole thing as 'petty drama'
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Implying that the people who don't care are insensitive pricks.
Maybe they're just not as tuned in to it as others? I barely even have a firm grasp on the grand clusterfuck that is Dragoneer and why people hate him so very much, naturally because I keep my nose out of it all.
Where's the sin in being ignorant to the matter? And if there is any, is it based on some preconceived notion that the people who have no clue what these current events are about are "stupid"? Vapid?
Allow me to apologize for minding my own business.........
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It's not that they don't care that bugs me, it's the vehement declaration to everyone about How Much They Just Don't Care. That's the annoying part. I don't think they're insensitive pricks, I think they're hypocritical in taking so much time and effort to declare to all that they don't care.
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Garr's right. It's the vehement "It doesn't matter and you're bad for thinking it does, it's just some little thing." That really galls people who care.
It's one thing to ignore it, it's another to proclaim loudly one's apathy. Which is... strange when you think about it.
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Just agreeing. And showing support on this one. Desided even if I don't have much if anything to add, one should state their approval of this because hey: if trolls and ignorant people are loud, so should we be.
Over all, cheers!
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IKR?
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Link
Birdtho
Considering everyone who is crying rape have nothing but some FA notes to go off of and are a bunch of drama-hysterical people, I don't think any of their mass-consensus holds water.
Also, this is why pure democracy is mob rule.
These people -think- he did it. They do not know, they are not witnesses. Their testimonies would be ineligible in court, and they got nothing to testify.