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Snowcast for Maine by Aldin

In RL, I have two degrees in meteorology (Plymouth State and Texas Tech). While I don't get to use my knowledge in my work, I still dabble in it now and then. If you're not in Maine, sorry, as I'm not being paid to do this, that's all I concentrate on. Below has also been posted to my scouting/family Facebook and on Livejournal.

WATCH-SMATCH. Watch, nothing. While our friends at the National Weather Service can't declare a warning until 24 hours out (sometime Monday morning in this case), my hands aren't tied lie that. THIS IS A FRENCH TOAST EMERGENCY (FTE) ALERT! RUN! RUN! RUN! GET YOUR BACKSIDE TO THE NEAREST STORE LIKE YESTERDAY AND WIPE OUT THE BREAD, MILK, AND EGGS! HOW ELSE CAN YOU HAVE A PROPER FRENCH TOAST EMERGENCY WITHOUT THE PROPER INGREDIENTS! (MAPLE SYRUP OPTIONAL AS SOME PREFER POWDERED SUGAR ON THEIR FT.)

I have access to the GFS and NAM forecast models. GFS is long range (goes out 10 days). NAM is medium range (goes out 4 days).

The GFS is showing a classic nor'easter with the potential for about a foot (30cm) for central Maine. A little less along the coast and far Down East where it may change over briefly to rain or mix bag. Temps during the nor'easter in the mid to upper 20's F (-1.5 to -4C). The warmer the actual temp during the storm, the less snow we get BUT it will also be heavy and wet if it hits the upper 20'sF. If it sticks to mid-20's it'll be fluffier. Timing: It will start mid-to-late morning Tuesday, fall very heavy at times Tuesday afternoon and evening and snow right through Wed. AM commute. There is the possibility for some lingering snow showers through Wed. evening as the low moves east into the Maritime Canadian provinces.

The NAM...well, lets say if you start seeing the Weather Channel or a local TV meteorologist start yelling "SNOWMEGEDON!!!", then they only looked at the NAM. Right now, I have my doubts on the NAM. Makes me wish I had access to the "EURO"(pean model) so as to reassure myself that the NAM is the outlier here. Why? Weather models forecast liquid equivalent precipitation--what would fall if it fell as rain. You then need to look at the temperatures in various parts of the atmosphere to determine will it fall as rain, snow or a mix-bag. The GFS is showing about an inch (2.5cm) and temps in the mid-to-upper 20's, which for us translates out to about a foot of snow.

The NAM is calling for THREE INCHES PLUS (4.5cm+)! And temps near or just above the freezing mark. It could be a foot of heavy, wet snow, or heavy, wet snow followed by sleet, freezing rain, all rain and then maybe back in the other direction.

Personally, I'm rooting for the GFS considering the alternative.

On the plus side, as I work for a uni, this means I'll probably have Tuesday off, which I can dedicate to the story, which is still chugging along at 50 pages/25K words and climbing. Just haven't had a lot of time in the past week to dedicate to it.

Snowcast for Maine

Aldin

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